By STEVEN LUO
Beat Political Director

Of the Bay Area’s eleven Congressional districts, only two have seen competitive races in the last ten years. Only one incumbent has been unseated in that time. Three area representatives have held their seats for more than 20 years, and two — Pete Stark (D-Fremont) and George Miller (D-Martinez) — are among the ten longest-serving members of the current House.

When a job opening so rare, with the promise of that sort of job security, turns up, it’s bound to draw interest. Especially when you don’t have to give up your current job to run, unlike in many cases where a politician tries to move up to a higher post.

Photo Courtesy National Journal

It’s no surprise, then, that Representative Ellen Tauscher’s announcement two weeks ago that she was accepting a senior post in the State Department touched off an immediate scramble amongst area politicians for her seat, even though a special election is several months away.

Tauscher, a Democrat who unseated Republican Bill Baker in a close contest in 1996, has represented California’s 10th Congressional District, which currently includes Fairfield, Antioch, Walnut Creek, Lafayette, and Livermore, for more than 12 years. Considered the most moderate member of the Bay Area delegation, she is chair of the New Democrat Coalition, a group of centrist congressional Democrats.

Tauscher’s moderate views likely reflect those of her district. While the district is much more heavily Democratic than it was before the 2002 redistricting, it is still relatively centrist for the area. UC Berkeley political scientist Henry Brady told Congressional Quarterly that “a moderate Republican might have a chance.”

Still, Democrats have a big advantage in a district which gave Barack Obama 65% of its vote in 2008, and area Democrats are already lining up in preparation for a run.

Guy Houston

Mark DeSaulnier

State Senator Mark DeSaulnier has already said he will run, and is the early frontrunner through his heavyweight Democratic establishment backing — he has picked up endorsements from 11th District Assemblymember Tom Torlakson (who was widely viewed as a candidate himself before his announcement), Miller, and Tauscher herself. Strong party backing should give him significant fundraising and organizating advantages over other candidates.

Joan Buchanan

But 15th District Assemblymember Joan Buchanan, elected in a highly competitive race last year, is also considering running, and has commissioned a poll showing her leading, if narrowly, in the race. Buchanan could be the only woman in the race if she runs, and would draw support from Democratic women’s groups such as EMILY’s List.

Adriel Hampton

Another potential Democratic candidate is former Assemblymember Joe Canciamilla, a moderate whose politics might fit the district well. But without major backing, he might find it difficult to raise money or organize, and he has not yet said whether he will run.

Adriel Hampton, an investigator for the San Francisco City Attorney’s office, has already launched his campaign, targeting liberal voters in the district. He appears to be attempting to organize a grassroots online campaign, but is unlikely to get much local Democratic Party backing. His best chance may be to get a big push from the Democratic netroots and hope that others split the moderate vote.

Joe Canciamilla

On the Republican side, the field is still unclear. San Ramon Mayor Abram Wilson, who lost to Buchanan in the 2008 general election, and former Assemblymember Guy Houston, whom Buchanan replaced, were neck and neck in the poll commissioned by Buchanan, though neither has expressed interest in the race yet. Both are moderate Republicans with name recognition in the area.

Abram Wilson

State GOP vice chairman Tom Del Beccaro, a conservative commentator and activist, is considering a run, though he may be too conservative to win in the district. And the Contra Costa Times and Politico have reported that long-time Contra Costa County Sheriff Warren Rupf, a well-known figure untainted by partisan politics, is being recruited to run for the Republicans.

But GOP strategist Tim Clark told CQ that he believes that moderate Republicans with their own money to spend are likely to dominate the GOP field.

Tom Del Beccaro

Warren Rupf

A win in a Bay Area district would be a major coup for the national GOP, which has struggled to find its identity in the wake of the devastating losses it suffered in the 2006 and 2008 elections. However, the party would not want to spend significant resources of its own on a district with a heavy Democratic voter registration advantage, making a wealthy “self-funding” candidate attractive.

The special election process also helps open up the race. Once Tauscher is confirmed, a process which could take weeks or months, more than four months could elapse before a special election is held. The initial vote is an open primary, with all candidates listed together on one ballot; if no one candidate receives a majority, a runoff election including the top candidate from each party will be held eight weeks later.

Turnout in special elections is historically quite low, so endorsements, organization, and get-out-the-vote efforts will play a large part in the outcome.

This upcoming special election may not end the story either. If the winner holds another political office — likely to be the case, if a Democrat wins — he or she will have to vacate that office to be seated in Congress, triggering another special election.

Steven Luo is the Political Director for the California Beat. E-mail him at californiabeat@gmail.com. Stay up-to-date with The Political Beat. Join the California Beat on Facebook, and get breaking news headlines, story alerts and previews when you follow us on Twitter.

Recent Bay Area Congressional races

• 2008: Tom Lantos (D-San Mateo) announces he is retiring, and dies shortly after of cancer. State Sen. Jackie Speier, who had already been planning a primary challenge, picks up his endorsement and wins the special election easily.
• 2006: Richard Pombo (R-Tracy), weakened by ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and the changing demographics of his district, is defeated by Jerry McNerney (D) in a closely contested general election. McNerney goes on to win more easily in 2008 against Dean Andal (R).
• 2000: Tom Campbell (R-San Jose) decides not to run for reelection, instead running for US Senate. State Assemblymember Mike Honda (D) survives a Democratic primary fight to win a close general election.

Potential contenders

Mark DeSaulnier (D):
Elected state senator for the 7th district in 2008. Before that, served one term in the state Assembly and four terms on the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors. First appointed to the Board of Supervisors by former Gov. Pete Wilson in 1993, before winning election (as a Republican) later that year. Was mayor of Concord from 1991 to 1993. Owned restaurants before beginning his political career. Lives in Concord with his two sons.

Joan Buchanan (D):
Elected state Assemblymember for the 15th district in 2008. Before that, served almost 20 years on the San Ramon Valley Unified School District board. Previously an executive at Delta Dental. Mother of five, lives in Alamo.

Joe Canciamilla (D):
State Assemblymember for the 11th district from 2000-2008. Before that, served on the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors from 1997-2000. Previously elected Pittsburg mayor, served on the Pittsburg City Council. Began his political career at the age of 17 when elected to the Pittsburg Board of Education. Practiced law in the past; co-owner of a funeral home. Married to Laura Stephenson-Canciamilla, Director of Alternative and Adult Education for the Acalanes Union High School District.

Adriel Hampton (D):
“Municipal investigator” in the San Francisco City Attorney’s office. Previously political editor for the San Francisco Examiner and news editor for the Daily Review (Hayward). Married with two children, lives in Dublin.

Abram Wilson (R):
Became mayor of San Ramon in 2002. Before that, served on the San Ramon City Council. Served as an executive at Wells Fargo and Bank of America, sat on various city boards. Married with two children, lives in San Ramon.

Guy Houston (R):
State Assemblymember for the 15th district from 2002-2008. Previously mayor of Dublin and Dublin city councilman. President of a real estate firm. Married with three children.

Tom Del Beccaro (R):
Elected vice chair of the California Republican Party in 2007. Political commentator, conservative activist in local and state Republican politics for more than 25 years. Author of The New Conservative Paradigm. Lives in Lafayette.

Warren Rupf (R):
Contra Costa County Sheriff since 1992. Has served in the county sheriff’s department since 1965; previously served in the Marine Corps. Married, lives in Martinez.